This webpage uses the
Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg fourth-order method with fifth-order error checking (RKF45) to approximate the solution to the SEIR equations with the
δ parameter to account for quarantine effects:
dtdSdtdEdtdIdtdR=ΛN−μS−NβI(1−δ)S=NβI(1−δ)S−(μ+a)E=aE−(γ+μ)I=γI−μR. Where
S is the number of susceptible persons,
E is the number of exposed persons,
I is the number of infectious persons and
R is the number of recovered persons.
a is the inverse of the average incubation period.
β is a parameter that pertains to the average number of contacts per person per time and the rate of transmission for the disease.
γ is the inverse of the average time a person is infected with the disease.
Λ is the birth rate.
μ is the overall population death rate (not only including the disease death rate).
N is the total population. My original model had
γI multiplied by
1−δ, but as quarantine should not affect how long it takes for people to recover, it should not affect this term.